Over a period of two years, the Ceres2030 team spent researching answers to the questions of how much it will how much it will cost to realize SDG 2 and where that money should be spent most effectively. IISD Senior Advisor and Ceres2030 Co-director Carin Smaller about small farmers, machine learning and women empowerment.
What is the starting point of “Ceres2030”?
Five years ago the world came together and agreed to these global goals. And one of them was the most important one: to end hunger. But people have tried to solve this problem for decades now. The interesting about “goal 2” is that it wants to end hunger with a strong focus on small farmers and small producers in the poorest countries – and trying to end hunger in ways that are consistent with our climate commitments and with our environmental goals.
And what is the significance of the study?
When this goal was launched as part of the Agenda 2030, there was a realisation that there is not enough evidence about how we could actually improve the incomes and the productivity of the farmers in these poor countries, mostly in Africa, nor how to do it in a way that would promote sustainable agriculture and resilient food systems. The question was: Do we have answers, what is the best way to improve farmers’ incomes doing it in an environmentally sustainably way – and what it is going to cost?
Who asked?
The BMZ and the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation came to us and said: We want you to use the highest standards in research and economic modelling to provide answers to these questions.
It is really important for policy makers to be able to make decisions with the evidence they have. They need to know where to direct their public spending.
Why are the costs being asked specifically?
It is really important for policy makers to be able to make decisions with the evidence they have. They need to know where to direct their public spending. And that is as much important for donors as for the countries themselves. It is no good just knowing what needs to be done if you don’t know the scale of the budget you need to achieve the goal. So, the cost is there to help say: This is what needs to be done and this is what we can confidently say to scale the resources in order to achieve it.
You said, the study focuses on increasing the income and productivity of small farmers - why?
Because, paradoxically, these are the people who are most likely to experience hunger. They are the people who are most often left out of economic growth and least likely to benefit from technological change. And they are the people who are most often left out of political decision making. This represents one of the largest and most vulnerable groups and those who are struggling at most. Importantly, they are also the group that is most vulnerable to climate change.
More and more people are suffering from hunger. Is the goal of "Zero Hunger 2030" becoming increasingly distant?
Absolutely not. This is so achievable and so within reach – it has never been more possible. If you look what is happening in the world today, you see governments spending unprecedented amounts of money in response to Covid-19 – the cost of achieving the end of hunger is going to be a fraction of what it is costing now in response to the pandemic. We were surprised how achievable this goal really is. It is not going to require a huge and impossible effort. It is really doable.
Conflicts contribute to hunger, too. Climate change is taking place heavily. How do you cope with that?
There have been always conflicts, and they will always be a source of increasing hunger. This is the reality and we know from the last few years that a big chunk of the rise in hunger has been in conflict areas. But you still have dozens of countries who are conflict free and who have unacceptable levels of hunger. This is where we really have to make progress. That does not mean that we are not interested in the people who live in conflict areas, but there is a particular pattern of investment you need when you see that hunger levels rise because of a conflict. It is often an access issue, like other people in these areas preventing people from getting food or using hunger as a tool. You need totally different forms of spending to access.
In the study, you write down everything that still needs to be done. Can you express in percent how much has already been done?
There has been a huge amount of attention and investment in solving this problem – but it has not been enough. The additional efforts that are needed, are totally within the scope of our political leaders and it is not wild and crazy what we are putting forward.
You use modeling as a method - what are the advantages?
People want to know how much it is going to cost them so solve problems – like ending hunger. Especially when you are speaking to governments, whether to donors or in the countries with high levels of hunger. What the model helps us to do is to assess: Okay, here are your targets, you want, by example, to double income of your farmers – how much does it cost and what is the most effective way doing it? The model at the most basic level will generate the sense of the resources you need. And because it uses existing data sources, we know what has been spent on this issue in the past, let us say how much it takes to spend money on research and development of a new crop variety. So we know what it costs, put these parameters in the model and we can tell you how many crop varieties you need to spend money on. Our model tries to spend money in the most cost effective way and in the most optimal way. We are not just going to ask 20 countries, all of them in the same region, to increase production of wheat and more food for people. We are going to make sure that the investments are smart, that it fits for everyone and that it increases income and that it does not create these unattended consequences where actually no one is better off.
What does the model have in mind?
Our model has interactions that occur between all levels of an economy, across different sectors of the economy and between countries. So we can be sure that you are not going to be asking Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia and Malawi to all increase production in the same crop. There will be a complementary strategy that the producers in the countries all can make money, can all improve their productivity but do it in a way where there is actually a market demand. This particular type of model that we use is a general equilibrium model that allows us to see the interactions. Everything interacts with each other – and the costs are much more cost effective and optimal.
And what does the model not do?
It is not giving you the roadmap to ending hunger. That work still has to be done at the country level with the countries’ stakeholders, civil society, farmers, private sector; all we can give you is a scale of the resources that is going to be required and the types of things that the money should be spent on. But the detail, i.e. what, how much and where has to happen on the country level.
Are there any scales that are not covered by machine learning?
The machine learning that we use in Ceres does not calculate costs. The machine scans all the literature that has been written on the subject. That is the beauty of the machine! It says: Okay, we look at 60 databases, we look at all articles that have been written about small scale producers and environmental issues around agriculture, and we will figure out which one is the most relevant and then we give our research teams the most relevant ones. We will all be quite overwhelmed by how much has been written in the past 20 years.
How much?
There has been hundreds and thousands of articles written that our machine was able to find in these 60 databases.
How much time would it take without a machine to absorb this literature?
Six, seven years. At least three times of the time that took us.
Despite 20 years of discourse around the need to promote gender equality, there is actually very little attention which is being paid to solve this problem.
How important is it to empower women?
This is probably one of the biggest lessons that is going to come from this study. Despite 20 years of discourse around the need to promote gender equality and women’s empowerment, there is actually very little attention which is being paid to solve this problem in the literature. We all know it is crucial. We are not the ones who put it on the map because it is already known, but it is worrying that despite all the talk about the importance of it how little attention it has been given in the research community.
What is the role of fertilizers and synthetic pesticides – and what about the meaning of ecological agriculture?
We don’t put forward the one and only model of agriculture that you need to promote. Our study was to look at the evidence saying about what works and how much it is going to cost. We don’t have a preference. But you will see, when the findings will come out, that a lot of people looked at ecological methods of farming and the model even includes an intervention around agroforestry to help improve livestock productivity.
Do you expect resistance to the findings of the study?
Resistance is maybe not the word I would use, but I want to encourage a very critical look at our findings and a debate on it.
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A contribution by Heike Baumüller, Christine Husmann, Julia Machovsky-Smid, Oliver Kirui, Justice Tambo
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A Contribution by Adrian Muller, Catherine Pfeifer and Jürn Sanders (FiBL)
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New insights on trade and value addition in the rice sector in West Africa
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Interview with Caroline Milow and Ramon Brentführer
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An Interview with Francisco Marí (Brot für die Welt)
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Indian farmers restore precious soil material combining traditional with innovative approaches. A case example how governance, agriculture and development cooperation can work together to combat climate change.
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A contribution by Prof. Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge
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A Contribution by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development
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Corona makes it even more difficult to achieve a world without hunger by 2030. So that this perspective does not get out of sight, Germany must play a stronger role internationally - a summary of the Strategic Advisory Group of SEWOH.
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Journalist Jan Rübel spoke with Joao Campari ahead of the UNFSS Pre-Summit. The Chair of Action Track 3 highlights key challenges in transforming existing food systems towards sustainable production and shares his expectations for the Summit.
Interview with Paul Newnham, Director of the SDG 2 Advocacy Hub.
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Interview with Martina Fleckenstein (WWF), Michael Kühn (WHH) and Christel Weller-Molongua (GIZ)
After the summit means pre-summit: It was the first time that the United Nations held a summit on food systems. Martina Fleckenstein, Michael Kühn and Christel Weller-Molongua reviewed the situation in this joint interview.
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The climate crisis fuels world hunger. What needs to change in the global fight against hunger, and which role plays humanitarian aid in international development cooperation?
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Climate change already affects the daily lives of people in the Global South. What are the challenges they face and what do these imply for negotiations at the climate conference in Glasgow?
In the run-up to the G7 summit, experts from politics and civil society discussed sustainable and more effective options for action by the G7 states to combat hunger.
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When women have control over the resources of a household and manage the income, it usually leads to a more balanced and healthier diet for the family. But often the decision-making power lies with the men. How can this gender inequality be addressed? The GIZ global project Food Security and Resilience provides insights into project work on gender-transformative approaches finances by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
A Contribution by Harry Hoffmann (TMG) & Nathalie Demel (WHH)
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A contribution by the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development
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It takes the joint efforts of diverse actors to achieve a transformative impact on the global food system. Barbara Rehbinder, Scaling Up Nutrition Movement (SUN), discusses four people-centred principles to get closer to this goal.
Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Podcast of the Federal Government
At the start of World Food Week around World Food Day on 16 October, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that the fight against global hunger will only be successful with international responsibility and solidarity (german only).
The Agriculture and Food Security Cluster of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH in Zambia shows how synergies among different projects and partner organisations can help people to eat healthier, diversified food. A delegation of the Bonn based Division of Agriculture and Rural Development learned this in a field visit in the Eastern Province of the Southern African country.
In Himachal Pradesh, India, natural disasters are becoming more frequent and climatic conditions are changing – with negative consequences for apple production and farmers' livelihoods. Holistic and multidimensional innovation bundles are required for the entire value chain in order to make the food system more resilient in the future.
The United Nations plan a Food Systems Summit - and now the Corona-Virus is dictating the agenda. The Chief Economist of the UN World Food Programme takes stock of the current situation: a conversation with Jan Rübel about pandemics, about the chromosomes of development - and about the conflicts that inhibit them.
Shortly before ending his position as Director General of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPR) Dr. Shenggen Fan talks about the reforms and new modes of operation needed to achieve global food security in the coming decade.
The first Climate Adaptation Summit put climate adaptation at the center of politics for the first time. The virtual meeting united global players with one goal: building resilience is just as important as climate protection itself. Around 15,000 participants discussed direct proposals.
Yemen is currently experiencing one of the worst disasters, due to war, hunger and disease outbreaks. The GIZ is locally engaged to improve the nutrition and resilience of Yemenites.
African inland fisheries are increasingly reliant on the capture of small fish species that are sundried and traded over long distances. They make an important contribution in alleviating “hidden hunger”: consumed whole, small fish are an important source of micronutrients. Only that, unfortunately, politicians haven’t yet realised this.
A contribution by Jes Weigelt and Alexander Müller
What is required to make food systems provide sufficient, healthy food while not harming the planet? How should food security be maintained given the threat posed by climate change? Our authors look at some aspects of tomorrow’s food systems against the backdrop of the corona crisis.
Lack of seasonal workers and virus explosion in slaughterhouses, rising vegetable prices, climate crisis – all this demonstrates: Our food system is highly productive and (at least for the rich inhabitants of planet earth) guarantees an unprecedented rich and steady food supply - but it is not resilient.
A contribution by Sarah D´haen & Alexander Müller, Louisa Nelle, Bruno St. Jaques, Sarah Kirangu-Wissler and Matteo Lattanzi (TMG)
Young farmers’ insights on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa @CovidFoodFuture and video diaries from Nairobi’s informal settlements.
A contribution by Kerstin Weber and Brit Reichelt-Zolho (WWF)
Biodiversity and sustainable agriculture ensure the nutrition of whole societies. But there is more: These two factors also provide better protection against the outbreak of dangerous pandemics. Hence, the question of preserving ecosystems is becoming a global survival issue.
There is a clear global task: We need to feed nine billion people by 2050. We, the people of Earth, must produce more food and waste less. That is the top priority of the UN World Food Programme (WFP), too - the description of a challenge.
Double interview with Tony Rinaudo and Volker Schlöndorff
Tony Rinaudo uses conventional reforestation methods to plant millions and millions of trees – and Volker Schlöndorff is filming a cinema documentary about the Australian. The outcome so far: An educational film on behalf of the BMZ (Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development).
A study by Markus Hanisch, Agustina Malvido, Johanna Hansmann, Alexander Mewes, Moritz Reigl, Nicole Paganini (SLE)
Post-Covid-19 lockdown: How food governance processes could include marginalised communities - an extract of the results of an SLE study applying digital and participatory methods.
If there is a lack of fertile soil and rain, hunger breaks out quickly. Maria Smentek from the World Food Programme (WFP) explains how farmers and pastoralists can counter climate change with hydroponic-systems.
Insect farming is economical and environmentally sustainable, they are high in protein and they live on agricultural waste. Marwa Abdel Hamid Shumo thinks: They are the best weapon to combat hunger
Urban gardening is becoming increasingly popular in northern metropoles. People who consider themselves part of a green movement are establishing productive gardens in the city, for example on rooftops or in vacant lots. In severely impoverished regions of the global South, urban agriculture is a component of the food strategy.
Supporting groups of smallholding women substantially contributes to strengthen rural operations economically. The organisation and associated group activities can help to reduce extreme poverty and improve the food situation.
The majority of producers in developing countries are women. Although they contribute significantly to the food security of their families, they remain chronically disadvantaged in male-dominated agriculture in terms of access to land, credit, technology and education.
A contribution by Nadine Babatounde and Anne Floquet (MISEREOR)
To prevent malnutrition among young children and strengthen the role of women in their communities, Misereor, together with the local non-governmental organisation CEBEDES, is implementing a programme on integrated home gardens in Benin - a series of pictures.
A contritbution by Essa Chanie Mussa (University of Gondar)
Rural youth need viable livelihood opportunities to escape out of poverty and realize their aspirations. How could they be helped to fully unleash their potential? This is an aloud call that needs novel strategies among governments, policy makers, and international development partners and donors.
A report by Bettina Rudloff and Annette Weber (SWP)
The Corona-Virus exacerbates existing crises through conflict, climate, hunger and locusts in East Africa and the Horn of Africa. What needs to be done in these regions? To face these challenges for many countries, all of these crises need to be captured in their regional context.
A report by Alexander Müller and Jes Weigelt (TMG)
As the climate changes, the population of Africa is growing and fertile land and jobs are becoming scarcer. New ways are currently leading to urbanisation of agriculture and a new mid-sized sector in the countryside
A contribution by Michael Brüntrup (DIE) und Daniel Tsegai (UNCCD)
Droughts are the natural disasters with far-reaching negative consequences. While rich countries are still vulnerable to drought, famines are no longer found.
Climate change is destroying development progress in many places. The clever interaction of digitalisation and the insurance industry protects affected small farmers.
A study by the World Bank predicts that millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa will have to leave their homelands because of climate change. We have spoken with one of the authors
A contribution by Dr. Karin Gaesing and Prof. Dr. Frank Bliss (INEF)
Especially in densely populated areas, land pressure leads to overexploitation of available land and a lack of conservation measures. The West African country of Benin, with heavily depleted soils in many places, is no exception.
A Contribution by Emile Frison and Nick Jacobs (IPES-Food)
While having failed to solve the hunger problem, industrial agriculture appears to be causing additional ones both in environmental and health terms. Emile Frison and Nick Jacobs call for a transformation.
Fish is important for combating malnutrition and undernourishment. But it is not only notable for its nutritional value, but also secures the livelihoods and employment for 600 million people worldwide.
A Contribution by the Forestry Research Institute Nigeria
The 'Domestication of Small Monogastric and Ruminant Animals' (DSMR) project led by a Nigerian research institute works with local communities to solve the bushmeat crisis.
The G7 is responding to the worsening global hunger crisis by mobilizing an additional $4.5 billion for this year alone. A key milestone for this in the run-up was the international conference on global food security "Uniting for Global Food Security".
Healthy, productive soils are a prerequisite for global food security – one of the priorities of German development cooperation. State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth on Germany’s efforts to support sustainable land management and why the VGGT are more important than ever today.
How can we reach more people with successful approaches to food security? In Berlin, an international conference organized by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationaler Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) addressed this issue.
Whether it's banana bread made from brown bananas, conscious shopping plans or foodsharing, we give you five tips on how to reduce your everyday food waste.
Why are short- and long-term responses important to address current and future global crises? Sebastian Lesch, Head of the Agriculture Division at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), provides answers to these and other questions in an interview with the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD) and explains how much Germany welcomes all donors pulling together and acting in concert.
How to maintain functioning food markets in global food supply chains in the face of vulnerability and disruption? Markets that support local and territorial food systems are part of the solution. Thomas Forster presents proposals for these markets to cope with future shocks.
The Global Alliance for Food Security (GAFS), jointly launched by the German G7 Presidency and the World Bank, released the Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard during COP27: A Rapid Response Tool for Coordinating Global Action for Food Security.
Rising food and gas prices, physical destruction and supply chain disruptions: Why the Black Sea region matters and how the war in Ukraine affects global food security.
A Contribution of the 'Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains' (INA)
Fair Trade organisations and the Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains (INA) have launched the #ichwillfair campaign during COP26 to highlight the link between global supply chains and climate change.
Four interviews kick off the relaunch under the new name „Food4Transformation“, asking the same questions from different perspectives. Mareike Haase and Stig Tanzmann from Brot für die Welt explain why the right to food, inclusivity, agroecology and food sovereignty are the central levers for a successful transformation.
A Contribution by Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem
High agricultural prices affect developed and developing countries alike, but the problem is aggravated for the latter through the lack of or inadequate resilience measures. Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem, AKADEMIYA2063, and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem, University of Hohenheim, explain what can be done to mitigate the negative effects on food security.
The consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have enabled many countries to open up new export markets for their agricultural goods. However, smallholder farms have been largely left out. Drawing on his experience in India, our author gives a brief overview of how this can be changed.
Iraq suffered many years of war, sanctions and economic crises. However, Ally-Raza Qureshi from the World Food Programme in Iraq sees progress. But now the effects of climate change are becoming apparent in the country. What is to be done?
In a world facing crises – from pandemics, armed conflicts, and climate change – how do we ensure everyone has enough food within planetary boundaries? A new podcast by Food4Transformation discover solutions talking to government officials, scientists, NGOs and farmers around the world.
The Gaza Strip depends heavily on humanitarian aid, more than ever with the current war. Gaza population is very young: Half of them are children. What is their situation on the ground? Questions for Lucia Elmi, Unicef Special Representative to the State of Palestine.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, not all financial institutions (FIs) have access to knowledge about how to implement processes to enhance rural financial inclusion. The pan-African Community of Practice (CoP) plays a pivotal role in supporting these institutions along this transformative journey.
How can agriculture engage more young people in rural areas? Advocacy and education campaigns can play an important role here. Simeon Kambalame, Timveni Child and Youth Media Organisation, has launched such a campaign in Malawi.
Women and girls in poorer countries are affected in particular ways by the multiple crises the world is currently facing. Uncovering the linkages between gender, resilience and food security, experts from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) look at ways to support women and girls’ capacity to respond to crises.
The armed conflict between Israeli forces and the Hamas is escalating. What does this mean for a Gaza, region that was already heavily dependent on external aid? Questions for Dr. Muriel Asseburg, Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
From measures to promote biodiversity in Germany to more sustainable cocoa cultivation methods in Ecuador: WWF works at many different levels. At the Green Week, it will be demonstrated just how multifaceted nature conservation work is and what role each individual's decision plays.
Felix Phiri has been Head of the Department of Nutrition, HIV and AIDS at the Ministry of Health in Malawi for almost 20 years. A conversation about constants and change.
Diversifying our protein supply to include plant-based foods and cultivated meat can be a game-changer for climate mitigation and climate adaptation, especially in the countries of the Global South. However, a great deal of research is still required to capitalise on this potential. And political support, as Ivo Rzegotta, Good Food Institute, demonstrates.
A Contribution by Emmanuel Atamba & Larissa Stiem-Bhatia
Drawing on dialogues with experts in Kenya, TMG Research releases its latest policy brief highlighting the critical need to strengthen coordination mechanisms in food systems governance. Emmanuel Atamba and Larissa Stiem-Bhatia from TMG Research summarize the results.
Peasant farmers tend to fail due to bank credit limits. But investment could help them generate a sustainable income. This has given rise to an intense discussion about potential digital solutions.
Companies in Africa that need financing between $20,000 and $200,000 find relatively few investors, as this sector is too large for microcredit and too small for institutional investors. This creates a "gap in the middle" where companies have limited options. A project of the World Resource Institute provides a remedy with the Landaccelerator 2020.
Lots of apps are entering the market, but what really makes sense? For African agriculture, some of it seems like a gimmick, some like a real step forward. So this is what a smallholder farm in Africa could look like today - with the help of smartphones, internet and electricity.
What Africa is experiencing in the course of digitisation is a disruption. Here three steps are taken in one, there you remain. In any case, the changes are enormous and bring some surprises. A graphic walk.
While Africa is the least affected region by Covid-19 so far, the number of confirmed cases and deaths on the continent is quickly rising. Despite the challenges many African countries continue to face, the African response to the coronavirus pandemic displays innovation and ingenuity.
As President of the IABM cooperative in Muhanga, Alphonsine Mukankusi is not simply focused on the figures. She has learned how to deal with people and how to take on responsibility. At the same time, her work helps her to come to terms with the past
How investing in healthy soils provides incentives for more sustainable agriculture even as it demonstrates the need for far reaching changes in the agrisector.
At the 8th German-African Agribusiness Forum (GAAF) representatives from business and politics discussed successful investment models to improve living conditions in Africa.
The CompensACTION Initiative for food security and a healthy planet, launched by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) in 2022, is gaining momentum. It aims to financially compensate smallholder farmers for their contribution to preserving ecosystems. Initial successes have been achieved in Ethiopia, Lesotho and Brazil.
Rose Okello is a Matoke farmer and single mother living in a village near Mbarara, a town in southern Uganda. To ensure that she can pay for her family's food, her children's school fees and other expenses on time, Rose uses various financial services. Her story portrays hurdles but also hope for women in agribusiness.
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