COVID-19 and Rising Food Prices: What’s Really Happening?

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Since the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020, food prices have increased sharply all around the globe. Looking at the data what the price hike means for world hunger and what can be done to prevent from another food crisis.

Fig 1: FAO Monthly Food Price Index in Nominal Terms, January 2005 to 2022. Source: FAO Food Price Index 2022 © IFPRI 2022

By IFPRI

Since 1975, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. The CGIAR research center currently has more than 600 employees working in over 50 countries.

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Food prices are skyrocketing around the world. In January, international prices for major food items climbed to a level near the heights of the global food price crises of 2007-08 and 2010-11, according to the FAO Food Price Index (Figure 1). The spike has raised concerns over the potential for another global food crisis, increasing hunger among the poor and, possibly, social unrest around the world.

 

Are these worries justified? The short answer is both no and yes. Food markets are in better shape now than during the crisis of a decade ago, with reasonable-to-good harvest prospects and abundant stocks for key staple crops. The 2021 surge in food prices is largely associated with the recovery in food demand from the global COVID-19 recession and temporary disruptions in logistics, rather than with severe food supply disruptions or continued trade restrictions. The food price surge therefore need not last.

 

However, even a relatively short-lived surge will affect food security for poor and vulnerable people.

 

The significant inflation of domestic food prices in many low-income countries is thus a concern.

 

Let's take a closer look.

 

What is Happening on Global Markets?

To start, it is important to note that the drastic year-on-year change in international commodity prices observed in 2021 is in part the result of a ‘base effect’; that is, there was a rebound in prices from the 10-year low seen in May 2020. Prices had fallen with the economic contraction caused by lockdowns and other COVID-19-related restrictions on social mobility introduced in most of the world from March 2020.

 

Next, not everything is getting more expensive. Trends vary starkly by major food products (Figure 2).

 

Ich bin ein Alternativtext
Fig 2: World Market Prices for Cereals and Soybeans December 2019 to January 2022 (index, Dec 2019=100). Source: International Grains Council 2022 © IFPRI 2022

Prices of rice, for instance, had increased before the start of the pandemic-related lockdowns in early 2020, but then declined as the COVID-recession began and some rice-producing countries phased out their export bans. After bouncing back with the global recovery, international rice prices have now fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting positive harvest and production prospects.

 

In contrast, prices for wheat, maize, and soybeans fell in the first half of 2020, then recovered during the second half of the year. This rebound, as well as a rebound in prices for nonfood commodities, was largely driven by the recovery of demand from China and, in the case of wheat, lower production levels following droughts in several major production areas (the United States, Canada, European Union, Turkey, and Iran). The surge in maize and soybean prices came to an end in the second half of 2021, however, following expected record production levels for maize in the U.S. and Brazil and greater soybean yields in the U.S.

 

The recovery of global demand has been a key driver of the surge in international agricultural commodity prices, more so than COVID-related supply chain disruptions.

 

Markets have tightened as a result of stronger-than-usual demand for animal feed and agricultural products for industrial use, with demand from China exercising major influence. Growth prospects for China’s economy turned less rosy by the end of 2021, however, and should be expected to weaken pressure on agrifood prices in global markets. Supply disruptions, which have been more closely related to weather conditions than to the pandemic, have had less influence on price surges. Although trade restrictions played a key role in exacerbating the global inflation of food prices during 2007-08 and 2010-11, they proved short-lived during the current crisis. The recent food price rise, however, could tempt governments to impose new trade restrictions, as is already happening in the cases of Russia (wheat), Argentina (beef), Indonesia (palm oil) and China (fertilizers). Other factors that influenced the upward trend in international food prices in 2021 include the rise of fertilizer prices, the depreciation of the US dollar (until mid-2021), and rising international freight costs.

 

Overall, however, markets for staple foods have been resilient, with global supplies remaining adequate and logistical bottlenecks proving short-lived.

 

This is not to say all is well.

 

Rising prices in international commodity markets are threatening food security.

 

The problem is most acute for the poor in low-income countries, where rising food import costs weigh heavily on economies and on personal incomes, as food accounts for about half of consumption baskets and 20% of imports. The rise in international prices for food staples explains about 40% of overall consumer price increases in low-income countries during the first quarter of 2021, a number much higher than in middle-income countries (Figure 3).

 

Ich bin ein Alternativtext
Fig 3: Contribution of Staple Food Prices to Consumer Pirce Inflation (CPI) by Developing-Country Groups, 2020 Q1 to 2021 Q2. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021 © IFPRI 2022

The recent global recession already had driven down demand for low-income-country exports, causing exchange-rate depreciation that further pushed up domestic prices of imported food. Domestic food prices have increased well over 10 percent (year-on-year) in countries including Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Haiti, Malawi, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan.

 

What Does this Mean for Global Food Security?

Rising food prices have a greater impact on low-income households, which spend a large share of their income on food. The surge in consumer food prices in many low-income countries partly explains the recent rise in global food insecurity. Additional evidence shows that the pandemic has been—and still is—detrimental to the quality of diets.

 

The recession caused by lockdowns and other pandemic measures has driven households, especially poorer ones, to shift to cheaper, more calorie-rich staple foods.

 

This comes at the expense of costlier nutrient-dense foods like fruits, vegetables, and animal-source foods. The rise in prices of more nutrient-rich foods, which has been far steeper than that of cereals, likely exacerbated this shift.

 

These trends are clearly worrisome. However, there is no reason to panic over the possibility of another global food price crisis. Production prospects for staple crops look favorable for the 2021/22 season, and global demand is weakening as the economic recovery in China and other major economies has slowed. While uncertainties remain, these conditions should be expected to reduce inflationary pressures in international commodity markets in 2022. Nonetheless, this may not provide solace to many poor people, as the global recovery is also slowing as the world faces new waves of COVID-19 cases. Poor farmers may earn higher incomes from increasing food prices, but most are net consumers of food. Governments of low-income countries have very limited fiscal capacity to protect the purchasing power of low-income families and prevent higher food prices from causing greater food insecurity and further deterioration of diets. Given the global ramifications of food price inflation, strengthening this capacity through additional financial assistance should be an immediate priority for the international community.

 

Written by IFPRI Director of the Markets, Trade and Institutions Division (MTID) Rob Vos, and MTID Senior Research Fellows Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández and David Laborde. The article was originally published on February, 11th 2022 on ifpri.org.

 

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From the lab to the masses: Maria Andrade bred varieties of biofortified sweet potatoes which are now widely used all over the continent. She sets her hope on the transformation of African agriculture.

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(c) Kate Holt / Africa Practice

Leveraging investment impacts

A contribution by Heike Baumüller, Christine Husmann, Julia Machovsky-Smid, Oliver Kirui, Justice Tambo

Any initiative whose aim is to reduce poverty in Africa should focus first on agriculture. But what kind of investment has the greatest impact? The use of scientific criteria provides some answers.

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Small-scale farmers’ responses to COVID-19 related restrictions

A study by SLE

The lockdown due to COVID-19 hit the economy hard - including agriculture in particular with its supply chains and sales markets. What creative coping strategies have those affected found? The Seminar for Rural Development has begun a research study on th

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"We must mobilise all available resources"

A contribution by Ismahane Elouafi (ICBA)

Freshwater deficits are affecting more and more people throughout the world. In order to counter this, our global food system will have to change, our author maintains. A case for more research on alternative crops and smart water solutions.

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Karel Prinsloo/Arete/Rockefeller Foundation/AGRA

"Nutrition is a human right"

Interview with Joe DeVries (AGRA)

Joe DeVries is a breeder – and Vice President of AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa). What are the chances and risks of a ’green revolution‘ in Africa? A discourse between Jan Rübel and him about productivity, needs, and paternalism.

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ONE WORLD no hunger - Meet the people driving rural transformation

A program by the partners of the special initiative One World no Hunger

The future is rural. On September 24, meet leaders and visionaries from Africa and South Asia who will enter into dialogue with european key actors.

Join uns here to meet the people.

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JOERG BOETHLING / GIZ

Continent in an uptrend

A report by Dr. Agnes Kalibata (AGRA)

Partnering for Africa’s Century: Innovation and Leadership as Drivers of Growth and Productivity in Rural Areas

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A new attempt at Africa's industrialization?

A contribution by Helmut Asche

Afrika is about ready. There are promising approaches for a sustainable industrialization. However, the path poses challenges to the continent.

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City, Country, Sea: 6 Innovations in the Fight Against Climate Change

A listicle for climate-neutral agriculture

Vertically growing plants, magnetic cotton. Hairy leftovers fertilizing fields, tractors running on algae? These six innovations could lead agriculture’s next Green Revolution!

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A New Mindset to Reform Agriresearch

A Contribution by Lennart Woltering (CGIAR)

In context of the 15th CGIAR System Council Meeting, Lennart Woltering shares his assessment of the ongoing One CGIAR reform process.

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Diversity Is the Fundamental Principle to Use

An Interview with Shakuntala Thilsted

A conversation with aquatic researcher Shakuntala Thilsted on the long-neglected nutrition benefits of aquatic diets and the empowering qualities of a sustainable aqua-food systems transformation.

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For a just transition to a sustainable planet we must secure land rights

A contribution by TMG

At the UNCCD COP15, the Töpfer Müller Gaßner Think Tank (TMG) hosted four side events. The agenda of the kick-off event included discussions for the Human Rights and Land Navigator.

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Food security is more than production volumes and high yields

A Contribution by Adrian Muller, Catherine Pfeifer and Jürn Sanders (FiBL)

Taking Biodiversity Focus Areas under production or abandoning lower yielding, more extensive production systems is the wrong approach to mastering the looming global food crisis, say the authors of the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL).

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The Rice Sector in West Africa: A Political Challenge

New insights on trade and value addition in the rice sector in West Africa

Low import tariffs, smuggling activities, unpredictable tax exemptions and weak enforcement of food safety standards: The potential of local rice value chains is undermined in West African countries.

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5 Questions for Jann Lay: What is Corona doing to the economy?

Interview with Jann Lay (GIGA)

The Corona pandemic is hitting economies around the world very hard - but developments in African countries are quite diverse. There are different speeds, resiliences and vulnerabilities. What are the reasons for this? Apl. Prof. Jann Lay of the GIGA Institute provides answers.

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Water may offer the only chance

Interview with Caroline Milow and Ramon Brentführer

Groundwater resources remain dormant in the soil of African regions. Where does it make sense to use them – and where does overexploitation of nature begin? Caroline Milow (GIZ) and Ramon Brentführer (BGR) talk about potentials in the future and lessons from the past.

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The Insect Whisperer

A Contribution by Jan Rübel and Zain Jafar

Agriculture is coming under pressure worldwide: bacteria, viruses and insects are causing problems for crops. In Palestine, Dr. Rana Samara from the Palestinian Academy of Science and Technology is researching solutions to the problem. And she finds them in nature itself.

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